In brief
A BBC Verify study shows that Russian assaults on Ukraine have surged to the highest levels during the war since Donald Trump's return to the presidency. The increase in attacks reflects both ongoing military production in Russia and the contentious dynamic surrounding U.S. arms support for Ukraine.
The recent surge of Russian drone and missile assaults on Ukraine has more than doubled since President Donald Trump took office in January 2024, according to a recent analysis by BBC Verify. Despite calls from Trump for a ceasefire amid escalating military actions, the data indicates the number of aerial attacks has risen sharply, peaking to unprecedented levels.Trump's presidency commenced with a promise to end the conflict swiftly, suggesting he could have prevented Russia's full-scale invasion if he were in power when tensions escalated. Nonetheless, critics have accused his administration of showing favoritism towards Russia, especially during pauses in military assistance to Ukraine made earlier this year.Data collected by BBC Verify, drawn from daily incident reports from the Ukrainian Air Force, reveals that between January 20 and July 19, 2024, Russia launched 27,158 munitions compared to 11,614 in the final six months of Biden’s administration. The White House has tied the ongoing conflict to "Biden's incompetence" and emphasized Trump's commitment to arming NATO allies while leveraging tariffs against Russia to negotiate peace.In the initial weeks under Trump, attacks briefly dipped, but by February, as U.S. diplomats engaged in discussions with Russian officials, aggressive military actions began to climb again. A notable high occurred on July 9, when Russia launched an extensive barrage of missiles, resulting in casualties and widespread destruction.Trump’s frustration over the aggressive Russian tactics has been vocal, yet it seemingly does not sway the Kremlin's decision-making. Political figures, like Senator Chris Coons, argue that Trump's two suspensions of arms to Ukraine signaled weakness—which may have emboldened Russia to escalate assaults against civilian targets.The calls for the U.S. to bolster air defense capabilities for Ukraine have intensified, particularly for the sophisticated Patriot missile systems. Expert analysts note that Russia's production of munitions and kamikaze drones has surged significantly, raising concerns for Ukrainian defenses as comprehensive military equipment assistance from the U.S. faces limitations.Furthermore, Russian military intelligence indicates a steep rise in missile outputs, now producing over 80 ballistic missiles monthly and ramping up the manufacturing of Geran drones. Senator Coons highlighted the need for the U.S. to demonstrate unwavering commitment to Ukraine, warning that Russia should not feel it can endure the West's resolve in the conflict.In Ukraine, the constant barrage disrupts daily life, as local journalists report the impact of nightly air raids causing anxiety and fear among residents. As public morale wanes amidst ongoing hostilities, concerns linger about the protraction of war and its toll on society.The current trajectory of the conflict invites scrutiny as both sides navigate the intricate balance of military strategy and political maneuvering, with the hope for a resolution becoming increasingly complex.
