In brief
As Russia grapples with the implications of losing its Syrian ally, analysts warn that Ukraine has become the main focus for President Putin, representing a dire gamble for Russia's geopolitical future.
The recent downfall of President Bashar al-Assad in Syria has left his supporter, Russia, facing significant embarrassment. This event has raised doubts about the extent of the Kremlin's military capabilities and its influence on the global stage. However, for Russian President Vladimir V. Putin, the setback in Syria might simply be a fleeting hurdle in his overarching ambition: achieving victory in Ukraine. Military experts suggest that securing a win in Ukraine has become an existential priority for Putin. Analysts argue that a successful outcome would not only validate the heavy toll of the conflict in terms of human lives and resources but also reinforce the stature of Russia both domestically and internationally, while offsetting previous strategic missteps, particularly in Syria. Aleksandr Baunov, a political analyst affiliated with the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, emphasizes the stakes involved, stating that Putin's commitment to Ukraine is paramount—leading to a scenario where a win there would have monumental implications. He remarked, “If Putin believes the world's fate hinges on the conflict in the Donbas, then the fate of Syria is similarly tied to it.” In the near term, as Moscow strives to maintain its military foothold in Syria, it is suspected that Putin may escalate military actions in Ukraine to recover some lost prestige. Pro-war Russian commentators are urging Putin to adopt a more aggressive strategy, advocating for stricter peace negotiations to prevent a draw similar to the one that contributed to Assad's demise. Both of these potential outcomes could create significant challenges for the incoming administration of Donald Trump, which has pledged to swiftly conclude hostilities in Ukraine, further complicating the landscape of international conflicts.
