In brief
Bangladesh's recent warming relations with Pakistan, marked by direct trade and military contacts, have raised alarms in India. Historically antagonistic due to past conflicts, the two nations are exploring cooperation as political shifts unfold in Dhaka. With Indian concerns mounting, experts analyze the implications for regional stability.
Bangladesh is experiencing a notable shift in its international relations, particularly in its interactions with Pakistan, a country once seen as an adversary. Following significant political upheaval that led to Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's exit, Bangladesh has taken steps to enhance its ties with Islamabad. In February, Bangladesh imported 50,000 tonnes of rice from Pakistan, marking the first instance of direct trade between the nations after decades of strained relations. Alongside trade, other cooperative initiatives have emerged, including renewed military contacts, direct flight services, and simplified visa procedures.Historically, the relationship between Bangladesh and Pakistan has been fraught with animosity stemming from the 1971 liberation war when Bangladesh, then East Pakistan, fought for independence, supported by India. This conflict left deep scars, and while relations were relatively amicable between 2001 and 2006, Sheikh Hasina's long reign since 2009 has seen a deterioration in ties with Pakistan as she aligned more closely with India.Former Bangladeshi diplomat Humayun Kabir noted the importance of this shifting relationship, suggesting it signals a return to "normal neighbourly relations." However, the warming ties are viewed with skepticism in New Delhi, which has a complex history with both countries involved. Tensions have also spiked in Dhaka-Delhi relations since Hasina's departure, as India has remained silent on Bangladesh's demands for her extradition amid various corruption charges. Some analysts, like Ayesha Siddiqa from King's College London, assert that a new tactical alliance between Pakistan and Bangladesh could represent a counterbalance to India’s influence in the region.The deepening military connection, illustrated by a recent high-level Bangladeshi military visit to Pakistan and joint naval exercises, adds a layer of concern for India. Former Indian High Commissioner Veena Sikri expressed that such a military coalition poses a considerable security risk, reminiscent of historical challenges faced during her term in Dhaka.Complications remain for this budding relationship due to unresolved issues from the 1971 conflict, with Bangladesh insisting on accountability from Pakistan for wartime atrocities. Diplomats and economists are urging both nations to focus on increasing trade partnerships, which currently amount to less than $700 million, often skewed in Pakistan’s favor. Major developments could take shape during an upcoming visit by Pakistan's Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar to Dhaka, as Bangladesh prepares for general elections that may change its foreign policy trajectory. With regional stability at stake, India is closely monitoring how these relationships evolve in the coming months.
