In brief
Pew Research Center data shows Latino Trump voters' approval of the president fell from 93% to 66% in the first year of his second term, marking the sharpest decline among any demographic. The erosion of support follows Trump's sweeping immigration crackdowns that targeted Latinos in homes, workplaces, and schools. In Arizona—a critical swing state with 30% Latino residents—Maricopa County's political landscape has shifted dramatically, with Democrats now holding all top offices. Interviews reveal deep divisions: Sandra Ramirez regretted her Trump vote after seeing 'color-of-skin harassment,' while Ronnie Martinez defends border security measures despite ICE raids. Former GOP Governor Jan Brewer warns Latino voters may abandon Trump due to 'inflation and cost of living' pressures, raising concerns for GOP midterms and 2028 presidential prospects.
PHOENIX — A year into Donald Trump's second term, the foundation of his 2024 Latino support is crumbling. New polling reveals a dramatic reversal from his campaign's gains: while Trump secured 43% of Latino voters nationally—up from 35% in 2020—his approval rating among this group has plummeted from 93% to 66% in April 2026. The decline comes as Latino voters report aggressive enforcement operations that disproportionately target communities, with over half of Latino adults knowing someone impacted by Trump-era immigration sweeps.Sandra Ramirez, a Phoenix resident who voted for Trump in 2024, exemplifies the shift. 'I watched footage of immigration officers cracking down on migrants and knew my vote was a mistake,' she said. 'There are people being harassed for the color of their skin—that’s not right. I’ll never go Republican again.' Her story reflects a broader disillusionment, with former supporters now questioning the administration's approach to immigration.Arizona—the state where Trump won significant Latino support—has become a battleground for these tensions. Maricopa County, home to the largest Latino population in the U.S., has seen dramatic political realignment. Once dominated by Republicans, the county now has Democrats holding all three top offices: Governor Katie Hobbs, Secretary of State Adrian Fontes, and Attorney General Kris Mayes. Winning back Latino voters will be crucial for these Democrats in the 2026 midterms.The shift echoes Arizona's own immigration history. In 2010, the GOP-controlled legislature passed SB1070—a controversial law requiring police to check immigration status—while Sheriff Joe Arpaio conducted high-profile raids in Latino neighborhoods. Former Republican Governor Jan Brewer, who signed SB1070, warns the GOP may lose its Latino base: 'With inflation and the cost of living and the wars, I don’t know if they can afford to be a Trump Republican.'In Phoenix's southside, opinions remain deeply divided. Albert Rodriguez, a tattoo artist who once supported Trump, now regrets his vote after witnessing ICE raids targeting 'paleta man'—vendors selling frozen treats. 'Big time, I regret it,' he said. Meanwhile, Army veteran Ronnie Martinez defends Trump's border policies: 'The border is only a hop, skip and a jump to our south. And I don’t want illegal alien criminals coming from Guatemala, Venezuela, Central America.'The administration's aggressive enforcement has also sparked political fallout. A 2024 AP-NORC poll found that 56% of Latino adults know someone affected by Trump's crackdowns. Former activist Earl Wilcox, whose restaurant hosted Biden during a Latino outreach initiative, notes: 'I don’t think the Republican Party will have the support it did the second time around—and I think it started with the raids.'As the 2026 midterms approach, the question looms: Will the GOP retain the Latino voters it gained in 2024, or will economic pressures and aggressive immigration policies drive them toward Democrats? With Maricopa County—the heart of the swing—and its Latino-majority neighborhoods at the center of this battle, the answer could reshape American politics for years to come.}
