In brief
China's relationship with North Korea is becoming strained as Kim Jong Un strengthens his alliance with Russia. Reports of North Korean troops supporting Russia in Ukraine and escalating rhetoric against South Korea have raised concerns in Beijing, which fears losing control over its ally. Analysts warn that the evolving dynamics could spark instability in East Asia, complicating China's efforts to maintain regional dominance.
In the border town of Fangchuan, China, tourists are drawn to a 12-storey building offering views over North Korea and Russia, but beyond the picturesque scenery, a complex geopolitical crisis is unfolding. The relationship between Beijing, Pyongyang, and Moscow is shifting, with Kim Jong Un's growing ties to Vladimir Putin prompting concern in China's leadership.Recent weeks have seen fears escalate regarding North Korea's involvement in Russia's war in Ukraine, with reports suggesting thousands of North Korean troops may be deployed to support Russian forces. This potential escalation coincided with North Korea's launching of an intercontinental missile, further straining relations with the West and intensifying pressures on China as it attempts to navigate its position amidst these tensions. Christopher Green of the International Crisis Group observes that Chinese President Xi Jinping is seeking a careful balance with North Korea but faces challenges as that nation looks more to Russia.Beijing's frustrations have significantly risen in light of Kim's perceived lack of gratitude for China’s support—over 90% of North Korea’s foreign trade is with China. This centuries-old alliance has started to wane, as Kim increasingly engages with Putin, who is providing an alternative source of support for the isolated regime. Historical analysis notes a disturbingly cozy rapport between the two leaders, with Kim preferring public flattery towards Putin rather than Xi. While both Moscow and Pyongyang deny plans to send North Korean soldiers to Ukraine, US officials claim to have evidence of such efforts, raising the international alarm. For Beijing, the specter of an emboldened North Korea must be carefully managed, especially given Xi's goal of a stable regional sphere unencumbered by direct competition from the US.As the fishing port of Hunchun faces heightened scrutiny from authorities in light of regional tensions, Beijing remains silent, opting instead for quiet dissatisfaction. For citizens exploring the landscapes along the border, North Korea remains a captivating mystery, albeit one successive generations of Chinese have known intimately.Analysts posit that should the bonds between Moscow and Pyongyang develop further, regional power dynamics could shift unfavorably for China. North Korea’s present reliance on China contrasts starkly with Kim’s recent overtures towards Russia—which, unless curtailed, may result in a challenging strategic landscape for Beijing.The contrasting views of North Korean and Chinese citizens on their shared border highlight the growing divide between what was once a closely-knit alliance. Kim’s decisions may yet provoke Beijing’s grasp over its ally—critical to avoid a potential refugee crisis due to instability in the already beleaguered state.As the relationship between Xi, Kim, and Putin evolves, all three leaders must navigate complex motivations amid rising global tensions. With each passing day, it becomes increasingly difficult for China to maintain its historical position of influence over North Korea, now viewed by some as the "comrade from hell."
