In brief
As the papal conclave gets ready to begin, online betting markets have reported Cardinal Pietro Parolin as the leading candidate to replace Pope Francis. Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi are now actively involving bettors. However, the intricacies of conclave politics make forecasting the next pope a complex endeavor.
Live updates from May 7, 2025, indicate that wagering on papal elections, a tradition dating back to 1503, has taken a new twist with major online prediction markets focusing on the Vatican's intricate selection process. As the conclave is set to commence, Cardinal Pietro Parolin of Italy emerges as the leading candidate, according to online betting sites such as Polymarket and Kalshi, despite recent health reports about him being denied by the Vatican.Other notable contenders include Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle of the Philippines and Cardinal Matteo Zuppi of Italy. While prediction markets successfully foreseen outcomes like President Trump’s election, experts doubt that the complexities of the papal election can be accurately predicted. Franca Giansoldati, a Vatican specialist for Il Messaggero, warns that high-tech betting sites cannot penetrate the secrecy of conclave decisions.Economist Rajiv Sethi notes that predicting outcomes in the papal election is particularly challenging due to a lack of information compared to elections where public polls and debates are available. With 133 cardinal electors, the conclave remains a closed-door affair, making it hard to glean insights for wagering.Historically, conclave politics have proven unpredictable; in 2013, frontrunner Cardinal Angelo Scola was overshadowed by Cardinal Jorge Mario Bergoglio, who became Pope Francis. Current dynamics suggest divided opinions among cardinals, many of whom are meeting for the first time, complicating the predictability of the vote.The betting frenzy is evident, with wagers exceeding $27 million by Wednesday afternoon on the outcome of the conclave, matching figures seen in major sporting events like the Super Bowl. Stefano Maria Paci, a Vatican expert, emphasizes the unpredictability of papal votes, claiming it to be among the hardest votes to forecast globally, but this does not seem to deter online bettors looking to place their stakes in this historic process.
