In brief
As President Trump imposed tariffs on 180 countries in a bid to reshape global trade, Russia was notably spared, yet the consequences of these measures may be felt even more acutely by the Kremlin than any sanctions previously introduced. Since the announcement on April 2, oil prices — heavily crucial to Russia’s economic stability and military operations — have plunged nearly 15%. This decline raises serious concerns about a potential global recession while the U.S. president has temporarily suspended many tariffs for 90 days. Analysts warn that if the downward trend in oil prices continues, Russia may be forced to make significant budget cuts as early as this summer, potentially impacting military expenditures.
Before this economic turmoil, President Vladimir Putin appeared to have regained a strategic advantage in the war in Ukraine and seemed to be fostering closer ties with Trump. This dynamic has shifted the U.S. administration's stance, challenging European allies who have consistently supported Ukraine, while an ongoing trade decoupling between the U.S. and China seems to threaten both economies and beneficially position Russia in a multipolar world.Ultimately, while Trump's tariff measures initially seemed to provide Russia with a reprieve, the broader economic shock could inadvertently undermine the Kremlin’s war funding capacity significantly more than the Western sanctions currently imposed.
